US-China policy chatter is still catalytic - but the direction is not pinned
The Opportunity
This is a policy/geopolitics cluster with proxy instruments available (SMH, KWEB, EWT), but the pipeline keeps direction as MIXED and flags edge decay due to Tier-1 saturation. The signal still matters because it can move risk premia fast, but it is not an informational edge trade on its own.
The Timing
AVOID here is about two things: (1) the edge is closing (spreading/decaying), and (2) the mechanism is not directionally resolved, which is lethal in a Mixed 58 regime with high crosswind (72). The only way this becomes tradeable is if a specific policy instrument (rates/HS codes/effective dates/export-control text) collapses the mechanism into a one-way transmission path.
The Evidence
Upstream explicitly tags the decay driver as Tier-1 domains plus broad multi-domain propagation. Hydrated evidence is not carried in the 7A payload, so this is anchored on lifecycle and the proxy mapping rather than article-level proof.